The economic and geopolitical situation of a country is very much dependent upon it’s population and demographics of that population.A country’s in order to fulfill it’s
geopolitical ambitions needs a young population large enough to maintain a modern military and for it’s economic ambitions too a country needs a dynamic, productive and
innovative workforce which simply means having a lot of young people in the workforce as they are the main drivers of innovation in a modern economy.During the 1960s the idea
that the world is overpopulated was the dominant thought following Paul R. Ehrlich’s famous book “The population bomb” which predicted mass famines and starvation is what
awaits the human species if don’t find some way to control our numbers.The vision for future envisioned in Paul R.Ehrlich’s book didn’t come to life largely thanks to the green
revolutions which allowed us to produce enough food to sustain the growing numbers of humans.Alongside the green revolution the rate at which the human population grows has
also shrunk from women having on an average of 5.00 children in 1960 to having just 2.2 in 2024.Many factors are responsible for the decline increase in women’s education,
healthcare innovation, availability of contraceptives, abortion alongside many positive social changes regarding women’s perceived role in societies.In modern times in some
countries the TFR(total fertility rate) has dropped to such lows that now countries are now struggling to find ways to reverse these trends.
Overpopulation or underpopulation which is the real problem?
Elon musk in his conference talk with jack ma said “Most people think we have too many people on the planet, but actually, this is an outdated view, the biggest issue in 20
years will be population collapse. Not explosion. Collapse.”Again those are quite the words coming from one of the wealthiest men on the planets said to have fathered who himself
have fathered 14 children,ofcourse it’s not difficult to understand where his concerns are coming from the total fertility rate of pretty much every developed country except for israel
has been well below the 2.1 required to maintain a steady population.The area worst hit by the crisis seems to be east asia with countries like south korea at 0.78, japan at 1.15,
china at 1.00.So now is it time we stopped worrying about overpopulation now and start tackling underpopulation problem, again the answer depends upon the region of the world you
live in.In most developed countries low birth rates and under population seems to be problem while at the same time there are till areas in Asia and Africa where overpopulation
till seems to be an issue.It is estimated that by the end of century if the current trend continue there will be more people in Niger than in China.The answer seems to be both overpopulation and underpopulation are both problems and the problem which different governments need to worry about varies depending on the economy , geopolitics and geography
of that particular nation.
Economic Impact
The population and demography of a particular country has a vast impact on it’s economy.The main case study that’s generally done on the economic impact of an aging population
is the Japanese economy that has remained stagnant since the 1990s after it’s big boom in the 1980s and pretty much every reputable economist considers Japan’s aging population as
one of the major factors.As young people are the major drivers of innovation and dynamism in an economy aside from a stagnant economy, an economy that is not very innovative is
also a problem that generally seems to follow the greying of the population in a country.The ratio of retirees and working age population is also a major cause of concern as old
people very much depend upon the young population of a country not just for care but also for retirement funds and social security, as the number of senior citizens in a country
increase a country will need to tax it’s working age population more and more to maintain services essential to the well being of the retiree population.On other side of this coin a country’s population growing too fast in not a boon on it’s economy either.Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are the perfect example of this due
to high fertility rates their educational facilities, hospitals and various other essential social services are under constant strain and unemployment and brain drain are
also major problems.The way to deal with these problems are highly debatable depending upon the political, economic and social leanings of the individuals still I am offering some basic solutions
that seem to be agreed upon by pretty much everyone.Solutions for dealing with underpopulation:
1.Taking in immigrants from developed countries to cope with labour shortages.
2.Using automation to automate key sectors entirely.
3.Making childcare and parenting more affordable.Solutions for dealing with overpopulation:
1.Invest heavily in women’s education and in improvement in bringing more women into the workforce.
2.Promote contraceptives and age appropriate sex education.
3.Encourage your population to delay marriage and childbirth and focus more in their careers.
Geopolitical Impact
The geopolitical impact of an aging population cannot be overstated even with advancement in automation most modern militaries still need fresh recruits which just means fresh
supply of young people every year in order to project strength on the geopolitical arena.One of the main case studies for this topic has been North Korea and South Korea for a long
time now South korea has been the wealthier, more populated and the more successful of the two Koreas it’s population at 51.7 million compared to 26.7 million population of it’s
northern counterpart,But the difference arises in their respective tfr’s an the current tfr of South Korea is 0.78 compared to the North’s 1.79 so over a large period of time the population of the North will takeover that of the South which will spell many geopolitical issues for South Korea which will be incapable of maintaining a conventional modern military capable of deterring it’s northern neighbor.
What is the G20?
The G20 (Group of Twenty) is an international forum of 19 countries and the European Union that works together to address major issues related to the global economy.This
website will focus on the population projections of the G20 countries as when combined the various nations of G20 countries represent about 80% of global GDP and two-thirds
of the world’s population.
*The copyright to this website solely belongs to Ayush Aditya and any reproduction in part or full will have severe consequence
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